系列 · 看见你的孩子 · 第 02 篇 · 观念篇 Series · Seeing Your Child · Article 02 · Mindset 大学申请 College Admissions 14 分钟阅读 14 min read

哈佛录取率只有4%,那另外96%的孩子呢?

Harvard Accepts 4%. What About the Other 96%?

《看见你的孩子:美本申请季的 10 堂心理课》系列第 2 篇

Article 2 of the series "Seeing Your Child: 10 Psychology Lessons from the Application Season"

上周,我带大宇去听了一场升学讲座。回来路上我问他记住了什么,他说:哈佛这类学校的录取率只有4%。

我问他:"当你听到哈佛录取率只有4%的时候,你怎么想?"

他说:我要努力。

"想努力,是好事。"我说,"但我想再问你一句:你有没有想过,其他96%的孩子,他们是怎么样的?"

我跟大宇说:大部分人会是那96%。可那不代表他们不优秀,不代表他们不努力,不代表他们做不了本来能做的事。

我还跟他强调:我不会为了提升你申请某一所学校的录取率去培养你。我希望你首先是一个善良的人。比如,你能真心为被哈佛录取的朋友高兴,为他成为那4%而高兴。其次,我希望你成为一个真正有实力的人,一个主动解决问题、能为他人、为这个世界创造价值的人。到那时,那张录取通知书不会决定你是谁,不会决定你走多远,也限不住你飞多高。

他说,他还记得讲座里那些案例孩子的优秀和成就。我问他:"你有没有注意到,这些孩子在见到任何顾问之前,本身就已经很优秀了?顾问能做的是如虎添翼,可你首先得是一只虎。一只小兔子,就算加上翅膀,也承受不了百兽之王的重担。"

别误会,我没有在说"别冲名校"。名校并非没用,它的价值要看对谁而言。对那些第一代上大学、家里没人能指路、社会资源薄的家庭,名校带来的人脉和平台,是实打实的回报,这一点各类研究也反复确认过。这样的家庭,"够一够更好的学校"是理性的。

就拿我自己说。我是完全凭自己,供自己来美国留学、又留下来工作的;大宇是留学生二代。这些年我在异国他乡独自打拼,倾我所有投资自己和大宇的教育,给大宇定的目标,自然也是哈佛这个级别的学校。我一点不觉得我追逐名校是功利的,也不觉得它羞于启齿,这本来就是我和大宇常聊的话题。但我并不焦虑。因为我清楚一件事:我是为了那张能用一辈子的人脉网去够,不是为了一个能发在朋友圈的校名去够。

我又问大宇:那你的大学目标是什么?

他说:我的目标肯定是哈佛这个级别的名校。但我不会对它抱有期待,我只会为它努力。这样,要是拿到了录取,我会很惊喜;要是没拿到,我也不会失望,因为我努力过,我的能力会达到了那个级别。

这话不是我教的。是平日里我们一次次的谈话,润物细无声,自然生长出来的三观。

很多年前,我劝一位家长别太担心孩子的录取。她说:你是现在孩子还小,才说得这么轻松,等到你孩子那会儿,你一样会焦虑。我当时笑了笑,没接话。

不知不觉,我做教育已经超过25年了。我的第一批学生,如今早已成年、工作。我越来越确信:一个底色打好了的孩子,大抵都不会差。成大事者,必有德行;若心怀大志、志存高远,路就在脚下。

除了这些,我之所以不焦虑大宇能不能进名校,还有下面几个原因。它们不来自我的直觉,而来自过去几十年的实证研究。

01 名校和排名,可能不是你以为的那样

先说一个,可能也让你松一口气的发现。

美国有一家叫盖洛普(Gallup)的机构,追踪过三万多名大学毕业生,想弄清楚:到底是什么,决定了一个人毕业多年后过得好不好、对工作投不投入。结果出乎很多人意料。读没读名校、学校排名高不高,和这些几乎没有关系。真正让一个人毕业后"活得有劲"的概率翻倍的,是另外几件事:

  • 在大学里遇到过一位真心关心他、点燃他的教授;
  • 有过一位带他的导师;
  • 做过一个长期的项目;
  • 有过一次真正用得上所学的实习。

斯坦福大学附属的一个研究团队(Challenge Success)调查了十万多名高中生,结论是一样的:学校有多难进,和孩子的学习收获、未来的幸福感之间,并没有显著关系。

再说收入。这是我们大部分人都会算的一笔账。

两位经济学家 Dale 和 Krueger 做过一个很聪明的研究。他们专门找那些"被同一批名校录取、最后却去了普通学校"的孩子,和真去了名校的孩子比。结果是:把孩子本身的能力这个因素扣掉之后,读不读名校,后来的收入基本没差别。

真正起作用的,是那个当年敢去申请名校的孩子本身。至于衣服上印的是哪个校名,反而没那么要紧。对收入影响更大的,其实是读什么专业。读哪所学校,排在它后面。

那名校那些光鲜的毕业生榜单呢?这里有一个需要看清的真相:名校之所以"出人才",很大程度上是因为它在入口处就把最优秀、家境最好的孩子掐了尖,而不是它把普通孩子点石成金。

研究数据

有研究发现,在分数一样的情况下,来自收入顶端1%家庭的孩子,被顶级名校录取的概率明显更高;这份优势里,很大一块来自校友子女、体育特招这些普通家庭沾不上的通道。

还有研究估算,精英大学里至少三分之一的名额,早就被各种"偏好"预定了。

所以,当我们看到"录取率只有4%",不要把它读成"我孩子不够好"。那4%里,本来就有很多名额,压根不是留给绝大多数普通申请者的。

02 名校这根弦勒得最紧的,是孩子

社会学家研究过华人和亚裔家庭里一种很隐蔽的"成功标尺":门门拿 A、进名校、读个研究生、最后做医生律师工程师这几样体面工作。这个框太窄了,窄到一个孩子拿了 A- 都觉得自己失败。

框越窄,注定"不合格"的孩子就越多。

这种长期"必须更好"的压力,是有代价的。我在之前的文章里提过,心理学研究已经把"在高成就压力里长大的孩子"列进了需要重点关注的高危人群,他们的焦虑、抑郁比例并不低。压力的来源,常常是那句被孩子自己咽下去的话:"我能做到,所以我必须做到。"

还有一件更隐蔽的事。当一个孩子的目标,是从父母嘴里、从排名榜上、从别人家孩子那里借来的,这个借来的目标,他进了大学多半会还回去。

还的方式,是"我不喜欢这个专业""我不知道我为什么在这里""我想休学一年"。

心理学里有个很值得重视的发现:一个由外部压力和大人面子推着做出的选择,会悄悄消耗掉孩子进校之后的投入和坚持。只有一个他自己真正参与、真正认同的选择,才会让他在艰难的时候撑下去。

我们这一代华人父母,常常把判断外包给了一张排名榜。有调查表明,大约七成中国留学生,把"学校排名"列为选大学最重要的因素,几乎把 U.S. News 和 QS 那几张榜单当成了圣经。

可榜单测得出师生关系吗?测得出归属感吗?测得出我们这个具体的孩子,在那所学校能不能睡得着、笑得出、撑得下去吗?答案不言自明。

03 怎么把这根弦,慢慢松下来

松弦不等于让孩子别上进。它的意思是,把那股劲,使到真正有用的地方去。下面几件,我们可以做得到。

把排名放回它该在的位置。

它只是一个粗筛的参考,帮我们大致圈一个范围。它代表不了一所学校的好坏,更代表不了我们孩子的价值。圈完范围,真正要去查、去问的,是别的东西。

换几个问题去衡量一所学校。

与其问"它排第几",不如去问:

  • 我孩子在这里能不能遇到一位愿意带他的教授?
  • 有没有让他有归属感的圈子?
  • 这所学校的孩子,四年读得完吗(可以查毕业率和大一留校率)?
  • 他想读的专业强不强?
  • 算上奖学金,我们家真的供得起吗?

这些问题,每一个都比排名更能预测孩子过得好不好。具体怎么一步步查、怎么访校,我会在下一篇《选校的科学方法》里详细写。

换一种和孩子谈名校的方式。

把"你必须考进 X 校",换成"我们一起去看看,哪所学校能让你继续做自己、继续长大"。前一句,孩子听到的是"我的价值取决于一个校名";后一句,他听到的是"无论去哪,我都相信你能行"。

如果决定冲,就冲得清醒。

想冲名校,完全可以。冲之前,和孩子一起把话说明白:我们到底为什么冲。是为了那里某个特别好的项目、那张能用一辈子的人脉网吗?如果只是为了堵住亲戚的嘴、为了朋友圈那一句恭喜,那就再想想。目标得是孩子自己的,他才追得动。

尾声

回到我对大宇说的那句话:你先得是一只虎。

我真正想让他、也想让每个孩子相信的是,他的价值,不取决于哪一张录取通知书。

这根"非名校不可"的弦,需要我们把它松开,孩子才有空间,长成他本来能长成的样子。

说到底,我们想为孩子找的,是一个能让他继续做自己、继续往前走的地方。

最后,想和你分享一句一直启发着我的话:

一只鹰能安稳地站在高高的枝头,靠的不是那根枝头有多牢,而是它知道,自己有一对随时都能展开的翅膀。

我们能给孩子的,也正是这样一对翅膀。让他相信:无论落在哪一根枝头,他都飞得起来。

申请是结果,成长才是目的。

(下一篇是正篇《选校的科学方法》。松开了这根弦之后,那到底怎么一步步选,我把它拆成了可落地的七步。)

对孩子的成长方向有疑惑?欢迎直接与 Apple 预约免费咨询。

预约免费咨询
← 第 2 篇 前篇 返回专栏 第 3 篇 →

Last week, I took Dayu to a college admissions presentation. On the way home, I asked what he remembered. He said: "Harvard's acceptance rate is only 4%."

I asked him: "When you hear that Harvard's acceptance rate is only 4%, what do you think?"

He said: I want to work hard.

"Wanting to work hard is a good thing," I said. "But let me ask you one more question: have you ever thought about the other 96% — what are they like?"

I told Dayu: most people will be in that 96%. But that doesn't mean they're not excellent. It doesn't mean they didn't work hard. And it doesn't mean they can't do what they're genuinely capable of.

I also told him: I'm not going to raise you by trying to improve your chances at any particular school. My first hope is that you become a kind person. That you can genuinely feel happy for a friend who gets into Harvard — happy for them becoming part of that 4%. And second, I hope you become someone with real ability — someone who actively solves problems, who creates value for others and for the world. When that happens, an acceptance letter won't define who you are, won't determine how far you go, and won't limit how high you can fly.

He said he also remembered the impressive accomplishments of the students featured in the presentation. I asked him: "Did you notice that all those kids were already extraordinary before they ever met an advisor? An advisor can add wings — but you have to be the tiger first. A rabbit, even with wings attached, can't carry the weight of the king of beasts."

Don't misunderstand — I'm not saying "don't aim for elite schools." Elite schools aren't useless; their value depends on who you are and where you're starting from. For first-generation college students, for families without connections or networks, the relationships and platforms that elite schools provide are real and tangible returns. Research has confirmed this repeatedly. For those families, reaching for a better school is entirely rational.

Take my own story. I built everything from scratch — funded my own education in the US, stayed to build a career entirely on my own. Dayu is a second-generation student in America. After years of building a life in a foreign country, investing everything I have in my own and Dayu's education, it's natural that the goal I've set for Dayu is a school at Harvard's level. I don't think wanting elite schools is mercenary, and I'm not embarrassed to say it — it's a topic Dayu and I discuss openly. But I'm not anxious about it. Because I'm clear on one thing: I'm reaching for the network that lasts a lifetime, not a school name to post on social media.

Then I asked Dayu: So what is your college goal?

He said: My goal is definitely an elite school at Harvard's level. But I won't put my expectations there — I'll just put my effort there. That way, if I get in, I'll be genuinely surprised. And if I don't, I won't be disappointed, because I worked hard and my abilities will have reached that level.

I didn't teach him to say that. It grew naturally — from one conversation after another, slow and steady, the way things quietly take root and become one's own way of seeing the world.

Many years ago, I tried to reassure a parent who was anxious about her child's admissions. She said: you can talk like this now because your child is still young. When it's your turn, you'll be just as anxious. I smiled and let it go.

Without quite realizing it, I've been in education for more than 25 years. My first students have long since grown up, graduated, entered the workforce. I'm more and more certain: a child who is built on a solid foundation rarely goes wrong. Those who accomplish great things have character; those who dream big and aim high — the path shows itself beneath their feet.

Besides these things, there are other reasons I'm not anxious about whether Dayu makes it into an elite school. They don't come from intuition — they come from decades of empirical research.

01 Elite Schools and Rankings May Not Be What You Think

Here's a finding that might also bring you some relief.

An organization called Gallup tracked more than 30,000 college graduates to figure out what actually determines whether someone thrives years after graduation — whether they're engaged in their work and living well. The results surprised many people. Whether you attended an elite school, or how highly ranked that school was, had almost no relationship with these outcomes. What actually doubled a person's chances of "thriving" after graduation came down to a few other things:

  • In college, they encountered a professor who genuinely cared about them and lit a spark in them.
  • They had a mentor who guided them.
  • They worked on a long-term project.
  • They had an internship where they actually used what they'd learned.

A research team affiliated with Stanford University (Challenge Success) surveyed more than 100,000 high school students and reached the same conclusion: how selective a school is has no significant relationship to how much students learn or how happy they are in the future.

And then there's income — the calculation most of us run.

Economists Dale and Krueger conducted a clever study. They specifically looked at students who had been admitted to the same elite schools, but chose to attend more ordinary ones — and compared them to students who actually went to elite schools. The finding: once you account for the student's own ability, attending an elite school made almost no difference in future earnings.

What actually mattered was the student who had the confidence to apply to an elite school in the first place. Which name was on the sweatshirt turned out not to matter very much. What has a greater influence on income is what you study — not where you study it.

What about all those impressive alumni lists from elite schools? Here's a truth worth seeing clearly: elite schools "produce" accomplished people largely because they select the most exceptional, most well-resourced students at the front door — not because they transform ordinary students into extraordinary ones.

Research Data

Research has found that among students with the same test scores, those from the top 1% of family income are admitted to elite schools at significantly higher rates. A large portion of that advantage comes from legacy and recruited-athlete preferences — channels simply not available to most families.

Other research estimates that at least a third of spots at elite universities are effectively pre-reserved by various "preferences" before general applicants are even considered.

So when we see "acceptance rate only 4%," we shouldn't read it as "my child isn't good enough." A lot of those 4% spots simply weren't open to most applicants to begin with.

02 The Name-School Pressure Tightens Most Around the Child

Sociologists have studied a particularly subtle "success yardstick" in Chinese and Asian-American families: straight A's, an elite college, graduate school, then doctor, lawyer, or engineer — a short list of respectable professions. The frame is narrow enough that a child who earns an A-minus can feel like a failure.

The narrower the frame, the more children are guaranteed to fall outside it.

This sustained "must be better" pressure has a cost. As I've written before, psychological research has placed "children raised under high-achievement pressure" among high-risk populations deserving special attention — rates of anxiety and depression in this group are not low. The source of that pressure is often the sentence children swallow silently: "I can do it, therefore I must."

There's something even more hidden at work. When a child's goals are borrowed — from a parent's mouth, from a ranking list, from what the neighbor's kid is doing — those borrowed goals tend to be returned upon entering college.

Returned as: "I don't like this major." "I don't know why I'm here." "I want to take a gap year."

Psychology offers an important finding here: a choice driven by external pressure and adults' need to look good quietly erodes the commitment and perseverance a child needs after they arrive on campus. Only a choice the child genuinely participated in — one they truly own — will carry them through the hard stretches.

Our generation of Chinese parents has often outsourced judgment to a ranking list. Surveys show that roughly 70% of Chinese international students list "school ranking" as the most important factor in choosing a college — treating the U.S. News and QS lists almost as scripture.

But can a ranking measure the quality of a student-professor relationship? Can it measure a sense of belonging? Can it measure whether this specific child, at that specific school, will be able to sleep at night, smile, keep going? The answer is obvious.

03 How to Slowly Loosen This String

Loosening the string doesn't mean telling your child not to be ambitious. It means directing that energy toward things that actually matter. Here are a few things we can actually do.

Put rankings back in their proper place.

Rankings are a rough filter — they help you draw a broad circle. They don't represent a school's quality, and they certainly don't represent your child's worth. Once you have your circle, what you really need to research is something else entirely.

Switch to better questions when evaluating a school.

Instead of asking "what's its ranking?", ask:

  • Can my child find a professor there who will genuinely mentor them?
  • Is there a community where they'll feel they belong?
  • Do students actually graduate? (Check graduation rates and first-year retention.)
  • Is the program they want to study strong?
  • After scholarships, can we actually afford it?

Every one of these questions predicts how well your child will do — better than any ranking. I'll go through how to research and visit schools step by step in the next piece, The Science of School Selection.

Talk about elite schools differently with your child.

Replace "you have to get into X" with "let's go look together and find the school where you can keep being yourself, keep growing." The first sentence tells a child: "My value depends on a school's name." The second says: "Wherever you go, I believe you can make it."

If you decide to aim high, do it with clarity.

Wanting to aim for an elite school is absolutely fine. Before you do, have an honest conversation with your child about why — really. Is it for a genuinely outstanding program, for a network that will serve them for life? If it's mainly to silence relatives or earn congratulations on social media, think again. The goal has to belong to the child. That's the only way they'll keep chasing it.

Closing

Back to what I said to Dayu: you have to be the tiger first.

What I truly hope for him — and for every child — is that their worth does not depend on any single acceptance letter.

This string called "only elite schools will do" — we need to loosen it. Only when we do will children have the space to grow into everything they're capable of becoming.

In the end, what we're looking for, for our children, is a place where they can keep being themselves and keep moving forward.

I want to close with a line that has long inspired me:

An eagle standing steadily on the highest branch doesn't rely on how sturdy that branch is. It rests easy because it knows it has a pair of wings it can open at any moment.

That pair of wings — that's exactly what we can give our children. Help them believe: no matter which branch they land on, they can fly.

Applications are the outcome. Growth is the purpose.

(Next up is the main piece: The Science of School Selection. Now that we've loosened this string, I've broken down how to choose step by step into seven actionable steps.)

Wondering about your child's direction? Book a free consultation with Apple.

Book a Free Consultation
← Article 2 Prequel Back to Insights Article 3 →